Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 10.444283 11.987718 13.655087 15.587010 17.760504 20.126790 22.894551
2025-04-27 8.221182 10.312383 12.750874 15.791224 19.466230 23.749822 29.104783
2025-05-04 6.970556 9.261473 12.067266 15.732027 20.365057 25.997566 33.330201
2025-05-11 5.933276 8.308199 11.349262 15.490563 20.938975 27.812837 37.083827
2025-05-18 5.244156 7.685556 10.934143 15.518789 21.757832 29.878296 41.158913
2025-05-25 4.735645 7.235346 10.679682 15.699620 22.740861 32.162746 45.597118
2025-06-01 4.253964 6.759957 10.328103 15.687039 23.417412 34.028421 49.523817
2025-06-08 3.806387 6.281114 9.916830 15.535013 23.856180 35.553995 53.020570
2025-06-15 3.496419 5.974378 9.721361 15.664393 24.680647 37.632183 57.361747
2025-06-22 3.304932 5.830766 9.752106 16.120710 25.994499 40.455717 62.883214
2025-06-29 2.993369 5.460248 9.396308 15.947088 26.332217 41.847065 66.351504
2025-07-06 2.593204 4.900946 8.691222 15.163718 25.666703 41.684850 67.466882
2025-07-13 2.450551 4.775296 8.689741 15.522966 26.833401 44.387164 73.094866
2025-07-20 2.307693 4.635452 8.652515 15.818095 27.910878 47.000982 78.707820
2025-07-27 2.115049 4.384263 8.400977 15.726844 28.337716 48.593672 82.768928
2025-08-03 1.920701 4.109700 8.084463 15.496455 28.509576 49.773260 86.208270
2025-08-10 1.783216 3.930212 7.922235 15.520841 29.106037 51.656583 90.847250
2025-08-17 1.679756 3.807410 7.852885 15.703051 29.978143 54.023519 96.364371
2025-08-24 1.560201 3.639634 7.684840 15.689994 30.499462 55.816787 100.990769
2025-08-31 1.434863 3.446780 7.452484 15.538107 30.757449 57.164090 104.908282
2025-09-07 1.352356 3.336974 7.372869 15.667451 31.526462 59.413364 110.436427
2025-09-14 1.310604 3.312448 7.460839 16.123869 32.918072 62.799324 118.044920
2025-09-21 1.208209 3.141202 7.236591 15.950210 33.117047 64.082131 122.028113